Mast Investment Letter November 2019

With risk-on financial asset price performance, moderate economic growth, good labor and wage conditions, deceleration in some housing and durable goods growth, Halloween exposes some creeping excessive debt conditions. Non-bank U.S. corporate debt is $10 trillion, up 60% from pre-crisis (2007) levels. Low-rated company debt has expanded. Over-leveraged energy, retail and healthcare companies are stressed. The decade of zero interest rates encouraged foreign borrowing to record levels as well. Dollar credit is piling up in Asia. Reduced trading capacity and bond collateral risks jammed up the repo market. U.S. car debt reaches a record $1.3 trillion. Car dealers average earnings per car sale $381 and finance earnings per car sale $982, no longer car companies and now finance companies. Credit card interest rates meet and exceed 1982 levels. Funds are marking down previously-inflated private-equity assets. They continue to purchase illiquid market assets in order to charge higher fees. End of era zero commission trading commissions eliminate another fee from wealth management industry investment advice pretense. Investors are leaving. Trick or treat?

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Mast Market Analysis Data Report 11/01/19

Market Analysis Data. This includes price behavior trading range position, trending price direction and degree of change, trend and trailing earnings, dividends, comparative interest rates and trends, expected returns, risk premiums and historical (generally back to 1959) averages. We maintain all the data and models which are summarized on Market Analysis Data. This is a source of Mast investment allocation decisions and regular reports and studies which consider current conditions and factors of recent and notable change or exception.